Miami-Dade Market Note: October 2026
MIAMI REALTORS published its September figures for Miami-Dade County this afternoon, October 16, 2026. This note covers that release and, where it helps, the August release that came out on September 16. Every number below is cited to one of those two documents or to Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey. Where we add an opinion, we say so.
Last month’s note ended with three things we would watch: whether condo supply kept climbing past twelve months, whether the single-family median held above $680,000, and where the cash share went. All three answered, and we take them in turn below.
The headline: fewer sales, firm prices
Total closed sales in Miami-Dade were 1,733 in September, down 2.0% from 1,769 a year earlier. August was also down, by 1.1%. Before August, sales had risen year over year for eleven consecutive months, so this is the first back-to-back decline in about a year.
Single-family closings fell 4.7%, from 865 to 824. Condo closings rose slightly, from 904 to 909. (The release rounds that to 1%; the raw numbers make it about half a percent.)
The association attributes the slowdown to three things: mortgage rates that rose nearly 0.6 percentage points after September 1, limited inventory in some price ranges, and uncertainty around Florida’s October 6 state of emergency ahead of Hurricane Isaias. South Florida was not among the 29 affected counties, but a storm watch is enough to delay insurance binding and closings. Our note on hurricane season and a pending purchase explains why.
Prices did not follow sales down. The single-family median was $692,000, up 4.06% from $665,000. That answers our first question: it held above $680,000, and August’s median had been exactly $680,000. The condo median was $417,090, down 0.69% from $420,000, close enough to flat that the direction matters less than the level.
Rates are the story of the fall
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40% for the week ending October 15, 2026, unchanged from the prior week. A year earlier it was 6.27%. The MIAMI REALTORS release cites 7.46% as of October 13 without naming its source, so we use Freddie Mac’s published weekly average.
A move of more than a point in twelve months changes what the same income can borrow. Higher rates mainly shrink the pool of financed buyers who qualify, which shows up first in sales counts and only later, if at all, in prices. That is the pattern in these two releases. If you are financing, run your own number with the mortgage calculator at today’s rate, not last spring’s.
Inventory: down for the eighth straight month
Active listings at the end of September totaled 16,242, down 10.1% from 18,057, the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Single-family inventory fell 16.6% to 4,536 listings. Condo inventory fell 7.24% to 11,706.
| September 2026, Miami-Dade | Single-family | Condo |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 824 (−4.7%) | 909 (up from 904) |
| Median sale price | $692,000 (+4.06%) | $417,090 (−0.69%) |
| Active listings | 4,536 (−16.6%) | 11,706 (−7.24%) |
| Months of supply | 5.1 | 12.3 |
| Median days to contract | 41 (50 a year earlier) | 67 (75 a year earlier) |
| Median days to sale | 80 (89 a year earlier) | 102 (115 a year earlier) |
| Share of original list price received | 95% | 94% |
| Cash share of closings | 26.2% | 49.4% |
Months of supply answers our second question. Single-family supply was 5.1 months, still a seller’s market by the association’s definition. Condo supply was 12.3 months, up from 12.1 in August and 12 in July, so it did keep climbing past twelve. A balanced market, in the release’s own words, is six to nine months.
One correction for anyone reading the release itself: it describes days on market as “up from” last year’s figures when every September figure actually fell. Single-family homes went under contract in a median 41 days against 50 a year earlier. Condos took 67 days against 75. Faster contracts alongside fewer sales means the homes that are priced right still move. The decline is in how many buyers are shopping, not in how quickly the good listings sell.
Cash and the top of the market
Cash accounted for 38.3% of all closings in September, up from the 35.1% we reported for July. That answers our third question. By product, 49.4% of condo sales and 26.2% of single-family sales were cash. The release puts the national figure at about 27%. Cash buyers are not exposed to a 7.40% rate, and that is a large part of why prices held while financed sales fell.
The release leads with the top end. Through September, Miami-Dade recorded 24 sales of $30 million or more, already past the full-year 2025 record of 21. Dollar volume rose 15.41% even though unit sales fell: single-family volume was up 21.31% to $1.2 billion and condo volume up 7.13% to $724 million. More expensive homes changed hands, which is also part of why the single-family median rose.
Near the middle of the condo market, sales between $300,000 and $400,000 rose 14.5%, from 159 to 182. Distressed sales, meaning short sales and bank-owned properties, were 0.5% of closings.
What it means if you are buying this month
If you want a house, the higher rate has thinned the competition, but it has not made sellers desperate. Supply is still near five months and prices are still rising. Use the quieter weeks to negotiate terms rather than expecting a big price cut. Ask for seller credits toward a rate buydown, a longer inspection period, or a closing date that fits your insurance binding. Get a fresh mortgage pre-approval at today’s rate first. A letter from June is stale.
If you want a condo, you have time and leverage: 12.3 months of supply, 67 days to contract and 94% of list price received. Spend that time on the building, not only the unit. With limited review gone and FHA approvals scarce, the building’s financials decide who can lend on it. Our guide to buying a condo after Surfside lists the documents to ask for before you sign.
What it means if you are selling this month
Single-family sellers who price to real comparables are still selling quickly: a median 41 days to contract and 95% of original list price. The financed buyer pool is smaller at 7.40%, so the first two weeks matter more than ever. If you are not getting showings, the price is the message.
Condo sellers are competing with more than eleven thousand listings. Have the association documents, reserve status and milestone inspection paperwork ready before the first showing, because buyers and their lenders will ask. Price against the units that actually closed in your building. Our Miami-Dade selling guide walks through the preparation, and what actually moves a listing in Miami covers the first-two-weeks problem in detail.
What we are watching
The October figures should arrive in mid-November. We will look at whether the 30-year rate stays above 7% and how quickly sales respond, whether condo supply keeps rising past 12.3 months, and whether the single-family median holds near $690,000 with fewer financed buyers in the market. We will report what the numbers show.
Sources
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, “Miami-Dade Breaks Annual Record for $30 Million-Plus Home Sales in Just Nine Months” (September 2026 statistics, released October 16, 2026), via PR Newswire: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/miami-dade-breaks-annual-record-for-30-million-plus-home-sales-in-just-nine-months-302911503.html
- Same release on the association newsroom: https://www.miamirealtors.com/2026/10/16/miami-dade-breaks-annual-record-for-30-million-plus-home-sales-in-just-nine-months/
- MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, “Miami-Dade On Pace to Shatter $10M+ Up Home Sales Annual Record” (August 2026 statistics, released September 16, 2026), via PR Newswire: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/miami-dade-on-pace-to-shatter-10m-up-home-sales-annual-record-302880816.html
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 15, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Frequently asked
What is happening in the Miami real estate market right now?
In September 2026, Miami-Dade closed 1,733 home sales, down 2.0% from 1,769 a year earlier, the second straight monthly decline. Prices did not follow sales down: the single-family median rose 4.06% to $692,000 and the condo median was nearly flat at $417,090. Active listings fell for the eighth consecutive month, to 16,242.
Are Miami home prices going down?
Not for houses. The September 2026 single-family median was $692,000, up 4.06% from $665,000, and MIAMI REALTORS says single-family prices have risen in 175 of the last 179 months. The condo median was $417,090, down 0.69% from $420,000, which is close to flat.
Is Miami a buyer's or a seller's market in October 2026?
It depends on what you are buying. Single-family homes had 5.1 months of supply in September 2026, which the association classifies as a seller's market. Condos had 12.3 months, a buyer's market. The release defines a balanced market as six to nine months.
What are mortgage rates in Miami right now?
Mortgage rates are national, not local. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed average at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year earlier. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type and the property, so get a written quote.
How long does it take to sell a house in Miami-Dade?
In September 2026 single-family homes went under contract in a median 41 days, faster than 50 a year earlier, and closed in a median 80 days. Condos took 67 days to contract and 102 to close. Single-family sellers received 95% of original list price; condo sellers received 94%.